Friday, 2 December 2011

Fiscal Union - only precursor to an even bigger crisis

We want to keep this post short and to the point: those members of the Commentariat who think that Fiscal Union will solve the current Euro Crisis will be in for a rude awakening - in a few years time, but maybe much earlier. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and there are quite a few weak links in the Euro-Chain. Even mighty Germany (as those on One Euro jobs there know already) is not as strong as it might appear. Its performance is strong only because the other countries are weak, bit like the conundrum in the currency markets where a strong currency means that the other side of the trade is by definition weak). Debts in Germany are also sky-high, especially if you include all private and bank debt and - most importantly - unfunded pension promises etc. How the poor German taxpayer, squeezed that he is by a relatively efficient (and merciless) tax collecting system, is supposed to carry the burden of all the freeloaders in the Euro Gravy train remains to be seen. I would not put my money on it except in very short term trades.

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